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Tue, Jun 30 2009


YODA ROUBINI PROGNOSTICATES

Nouriel Roubini, responding to 'what will happen if we (the goobermint and Masters of the Universe) don't handle things well'. He cites many factors, but this caught my eye:

"“The Fed is now embarked on a policy in which they are in effect directly monetizing about half of the budget deficit,” he said. The public debt is going up, and the federal government is covering about half of that total by printing new money and sending it to banks. “In the short run,” he said, “that monetization is not inflationary.” Banks are holding much of the money themselves; “they’re not relending it, so that money is not going anywhere and becoming inflationary.”

But at some point—Roubini’s guess is 2011—the recession will end. Banks will want to lend the money; people and businesses will want to borrow and spend it. Then it will be time for what Roubini calls “the exit strategy, of mopping up that liquidity”—pulling some of the money back out of circulation, so it doesn’t just bid up house prices and stock values in a new bubble. And that will be “very, very tricky indeed.”"

and

"“We’ve been growing through a period of time of repeated big bubbles,” he said. “We’ve had a model of ‘growth’ based on overconsumption and lack of savings. And now that model has broken down, because we borrowed too much. We’ve had a model of growth in which over the last 15 or 20 years, too much human capital went into finance rather than more-productive activities. It was a growth model where we overinvested in the most unproductive form of capital, meaning housing. And we have also been in a growth model that has been based on bubbles. The only time we are growing fast enough is when there’s a big bubble.

“The question is, can the U.S. grow in a non-bubble way?” He asked the question rhetorically, so I turned it back on him. Can it?

“I think we have to …” He paused. “You know, the potential for our future growth is going to be lower, because of the excesses we’ve had. Sustainable growth may mean investing slowly in infrastructures for the future, and rebuilding our human capital. Renewable resources. Maybe nanotechnology? We don’t know what it’s going to be. There are parts of the economy we can expect to lead to a more sustainable and less bubble-like growth. But it’s going to be a challenge to find a new growth model. It’s not going to be simple.” I took this not as pessimism but as realism. "

So that tells me, based on a lot of other stuff from Roubini and other sane econowonks, that it's time to start looking for bargains now, with an eye towards purchasing next spring or summer, then riding the next bubble up.

Because you know the greedy bastards will fuck it up. They always do.

posted by JDoe at 02:18:34 PM | link |

Mon, Jun 29 2009


YODA SINCLAIR GIVES 130 DAY WARNING

Been very busy working the business and making arrangements to move. Here is Jim Sinclair's latest prognostication. I must say, thanks to him, my money has actually grown a little, instead of shrinking to nothing like my buddies with their stocks, bonds, mutual funds and 401Ks.

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130 Day Warning

Yes, that is right. You have a little more than 130 DAYS before MOPE (management of perspective economics) falls into the abyss of loss of confidence in the US dollar.

The event will be the birth of hyperinflation in the US and elsewhere to the horror of the spin media. Crude has been trying to explain this to the public, but so far they have not gotten a clue. Crude strength is being called a hedge against the dollar as fundamental energy analysts are hard pressed to explain a rise from $30 into the $70s with NO pick up in US economic activity and NO massive draw down on supplies. The oil price is an example of the arcane and exoteric mechanism of hyperinflation soon to take gold to $1224, $1650 and then on to Alf and Armstrong’s numbers. This phenomenon is something that the murderous Children of the Corn that run the hedge funds will not accept until it happens.

Happen it will.

130 days is no time at all. Are you prepared?

posted by JDoe at 10:47:48 AM | link |

Mon, Jun 08 2009


SOME SERIOUS LIFE TRUTHS

- nobody really gives a serious shit about you. When all is said and done, the Universe has taken zero notice of You. It does not care whether you live or die, or how you live or die.

Ponder this truth.

- this means that when it comes down to brass tacks, you are on your own.

- not kidding here, these are Real Life Truths.

- you can only rely on those that call you family.

- think about this.

- no, seriously, think abut this. Who calls you "family"?

- It doesn't matter who you think of as family. Who thinks of YOU as family?

- now go and hug those people and let them know they have made a good choice.

End of convo.

Do not email me, I don't care.

posted by JDoe at 01:03:21 AM | link |

Wed, Jun 03 2009


LOGIC DICTATES

I've been mega-busy working to save my business and my lifestyle, humble though they both be, so I've been too busy to post much. But this comic caught my eye today:

posted by JDoe at 09:33:02 AM | link |



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